Powered By Blogger

Sunday, February 10, 2013

A New Israel: IRAN


An awkward title to start with for a country which sees Israel as its opponent and vice versa. Off late, in view of the US led western economic restrictions, Iran has all but not fallen apart. Despite being pushed to against wall for its ambitious Nuclear Programme, Iran has been holding on with lesser friends to boost of.

Now why a new Israel:
a) To start with, the kind of Geo-political positioning of both the countries vis-a-vis their opponents is the first similarity between the two nations. Israel, formed in post WW-II time frame by Colonial powers and pushing out the people living there for time immemorial , is surrounded by Arab country. Israel fought wars against these Arab countries and came on top each time.

Similarly, Iran being a Shia dominated country around 95% of its population is Shia doesn't have healthy relation with Sunni Arab world. Saudi Arabia and other countries see Iran as with same eye as Israel.

But here putting to rest the old saying " Enemy of your Enemy is a friend!", there is no love lost between the Israel and Iran.

So, with this geopolitical background, Iran faces more or less same challenges as does the Israel.

b) Secondly, Iran has developed its own defence capabilities as have Israel. Catch here is that Israelis does get western education and money for building such capabilities while Iranians have done it own their own (or say by reverse engineering the Soviet weapons).

c) Thirdly, Iranians IT professionals had capabilities to find out a Israel/US developed internet bug (FLAME which has infected their critical installations)  in their systems and have successfully shunted that out. I wonder how many countries in world could do that when faced with immense economic restrictions.

Recent Rocket launch with a monkey on board and his safe return also speaks volumes of their capabilities.

d) No country in 20th century had courage of challenging the American hegemony as Iran has done when it had openly said that it would block the Gulf of Hormuz in wake of US led sanctions. Gulf of Hormuz has 20% of world's petroleum supplies passing through it. It takes some courage to challenge a mad elephant as US on rampage.

Indian Stand:
As always, Indian diplomacy has been played into the hands of US.

Firstly, by opting out of Iran-Pakistan-India(IPI) Gas pipeline in view of US pressure and had put its money on US advocated Turkmenistan-Afghan-Pakistan-India(TAPI) Gas pipeline. This, inspite of the fact following facts,

   a) Iran holds the world's second largest Natural Gad reserves after Russia,
   b) IPI would have more economical,
   c) IPI might have led to ONGC Videsh/Oil India winning more oil/gas fields in Iran closure to country,
   d) Lastly, IPI on paper looks much more feasible and safer than TAPI as TAPI would eventually run   across troubled areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Secondly, we are reducing oil imports from Iran, which in present day economic scenario would have saved precious foreign reserve as Iranians have agreed to accept payments in Rupees or could have accepted oil in return for Wheat, Medicines and manufacturing goods.

We, as always, did lost a plot here.

Verdict:
In all the above stated points, one must remember that Israel always had US led western countries at her back in all its fights against it enemies while Iran has been fighting on this war almost single handedly with some help from Russia and China in security council.

At last, one sum up that, Iran is facing more adversaries than Israel and still continuing standing up to the Nobel Laureate General and his friendlies countries. History is full of examples of civilisations and nations which when pushed to brink have came out of those with flying colours.

1 comment:

BILLA said...

excellent analysis, moreover India should strengthen its ties with N. Korea too who is facing isolation from the world. N. Korea can give us scud and other missile technologies without much fuss moreover there is no payment issue because N. Korea believes in barter trade. I hope Indian diplomacy will follow their own way instead of US led ways.